thinking-in-bets

SKILL.md

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome. Annie Duke, a professional poker player turned decision strategist, built this framework from poker, where you're forced to make decisions with incomplete information under uncertainty—exactly like business.

Detailed examples showing how to apply Thinking in Bets correctly. Each pattern shows a common mistake and the correct approach.

「賭けで考える」、「不確実性の下で意思決定をする」、「確率的に考える」、「結果を避ける」、「意思決定の質を結果から分離する」、または「意思決定のバイアスを減らす」ように求められた場合に使用します。明示的な賭けを行い、結果ではなくプロセスに関する意思決定を評価するのに役立ちます。 Thinking in Bets フレームワーク (Annie Duke による) は、ポーカー戦略をビジネスと人生の意思決定に適用します。 ソース: wdavidturner/product-skills。

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