thinking-in-bets

SKILL.md

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome. Annie Duke, a professional poker player turned decision strategist, built this framework from poker, where you're forced to make decisions with incomplete information under uncertainty—exactly like business.

Detailed examples showing how to apply Thinking in Bets correctly. Each pattern shows a common mistake and the correct approach.

當被要求“在賭注中思考”、“在不確定性下做出決定”、“概率性思考”、“避免結果”、“將決策質量與結果分開”或“減少決策中的偏差”時使用。幫助做出明確的賭注並根據過程而不是結果評估決策。投注思維框架（來自 Annie Duke）將撲克策略應用於商業和生活決策。 來源：wdavidturner/product-skills。

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