thinking-in-bets

SKILL.md

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome. Annie Duke, a professional poker player turned decision strategist, built this framework from poker, where you're forced to make decisions with incomplete information under uncertainty—exactly like business.

Detailed examples showing how to apply Thinking in Bets correctly. Each pattern shows a common mistake and the correct approach.

"내기에 대해 생각하기", "불확실한 상황에서 결정하기", "확률적으로 생각하기", "결과를 피하기", "결과에서 의사결정 품질 분리하기" 또는 "의사결정의 편견 줄이기" 등의 질문을 받을 때 사용하세요. 명시적인 베팅을 하고 결과가 아닌 프로세스에 대한 결정을 평가하는 데 도움이 됩니다. Annie Duke의 Thinking in Bets 프레임워크는 비즈니스 및 인생 결정에 포커 전략을 적용합니다. 출처: wdavidturner/product-skills.

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