thinking-in-bets

SKILL.md

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome. Annie Duke, a professional poker player turned decision strategist, built this framework from poker, where you're forced to make decisions with incomplete information under uncertainty—exactly like business.

Detailed examples showing how to apply Thinking in Bets correctly. Each pattern shows a common mistake and the correct approach.

Use when asked to "thinking in bets", "make decisions under uncertainty", "think probabilistically", "avoid resulting", "separate decision quality from outcomes", or "reduce bias in decisions". Helps make explicit bets and evaluate decisions on process, not results. The Thinking in Bets framework (from Annie Duke) applies poker strategy to business and life decisions. Source: wdavidturner/product-skills.

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