thinking-in-bets

SKILL.md

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome. Annie Duke, a professional poker player turned decision strategist, built this framework from poker, where you're forced to make decisions with incomplete information under uncertainty—exactly like business.

Detailed examples showing how to apply Thinking in Bets correctly. Each pattern shows a common mistake and the correct approach.

Úselo cuando se le solicite "pensar en apuestas", "tomar decisiones en condiciones de incertidumbre", "pensar probabilísticamente", "evitar resultados", "separar la calidad de las decisiones de los resultados" o "reducir el sesgo en las decisiones". Ayuda a hacer apuestas explícitas y evaluar decisiones sobre el proceso, no sobre los resultados. El marco Thinking in Bets (de Annie Duke) aplica la estrategia del póquer a las decisiones comerciales y de vida. Fuente: wdavidturner/product-skills.

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