bayesian-reasoning-calibration

SKILL.md

Apply Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates as new evidence arrives. This helps make better forecasts, avoid overconfidence, and explicitly show how beliefs should change with data.

Trigger phrases: "What's the probability", "update my belief", "how confident", "forecast", "prior probability", "likelihood", "Bayes", "calibration", "base rate", "posterior probability"

A systematic way to update probability estimates using Bayes' Theorem:

在不确定性下做出预测或判断并需要用新证据明确更新信念时使用。在预测结果、评估概率、检验假设、校准置信度、使用不确定数据评估风险或避免过度自信偏差时调用。当用户提到先验、可能性、贝叶斯定理、概率更新、预测、校准或信念修正时使用。 来源：lyndonkl/claude。

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