bayesian-reasoning-calibration

SKILL.md

Apply Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates as new evidence arrives. This helps make better forecasts, avoid overconfidence, and explicitly show how beliefs should change with data.

Trigger phrases: "What's the probability", "update my belief", "how confident", "forecast", "prior probability", "likelihood", "Bayes", "calibration", "base rate", "posterior probability"

A systematic way to update probability estimates using Bayes' Theorem:

在不確定性下做出預測或判斷並需要用新證據明確更新信念時使用。在預測結果、評估概率、檢驗假設、校準置信度、使用不確定數據評估風險或避免過度自信偏差時調用。當用戶提到先驗、可能性、貝葉斯定理、概率更新、預測、校准或信念修正時使用。 來源：lyndonkl/claude。

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