bayesian-reasoning-calibration

SKILL.md

Apply Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates as new evidence arrives. This helps make better forecasts, avoid overconfidence, and explicitly show how beliefs should change with data.

Trigger phrases: "What's the probability", "update my belief", "how confident", "forecast", "prior probability", "likelihood", "Bayes", "calibration", "base rate", "posterior probability"

A systematic way to update probability estimates using Bayes' Theorem:

Use when making predictions or judgments under uncertainty and need to explicitly update beliefs with new evidence. Invoke when forecasting outcomes, evaluating probabilities, testing hypotheses, calibrating confidence, assessing risks with uncertain data, or avoiding overconfidence bias. Use when user mentions priors, likelihoods, Bayes theorem, probability updates, forecasting, calibration, or belief revision. Source: lyndonkl/claude.

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