chain-estimation-decision-storytelling

SKILL.md

Systematically quantify uncertain choices, make defensible decisions using expected value analysis, and communicate recommendations through persuasive narratives. This meta-skill chains estimation → decision → storytelling to transform ambiguous options into clear, stakeholder-ready recommendations.

Trigger phrases: "should we", "evaluate options", "make a case for", "ROI analysis", "expected value", "justify decision", "quantify tradeoffs", "pitch to", "business case", "cost-benefit", "probability-weighted"

Define the choice (what decision needs to be made?), identify alternatives (2-5 options to compare), list uncertainties (what variables are unknown or probabilistic?), determine audience (who needs to be convinced?), and clarify constraints (budget, timeline, requirements). Ensure the decision is actionable and the options are mutually exclusive.

在需要利益相关者支持的不确定性下做出高风险决策时使用。在评估战略选项（构建与购买、市场进入、资源分配）、量化不确定结果的权衡、通过预期价值分析证明投资合理性、向决策者提出建议或通过成本效益估计创建业务案例时调用。当用户提到“我们应该”、“投资回报率分析”、“提出理由”、“评估选项”、“预期价值”、“证明决策合理”或需要结合估计、决策分析和说服性沟通时使用。 来源：lyndonkl/claude。

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