chain-estimation-decision-storytelling

SKILL.md

Systematically quantify uncertain choices, make defensible decisions using expected value analysis, and communicate recommendations through persuasive narratives. This meta-skill chains estimation → decision → storytelling to transform ambiguous options into clear, stakeholder-ready recommendations.

Trigger phrases: "should we", "evaluate options", "make a case for", "ROI analysis", "expected value", "justify decision", "quantify tradeoffs", "pitch to", "business case", "cost-benefit", "probability-weighted"

Define the choice (what decision needs to be made?), identify alternatives (2-5 options to compare), list uncertainties (what variables are unknown or probabilistic?), determine audience (who needs to be convinced?), and clarify constraints (budget, timeline, requirements). Ensure the decision is actionable and the options are mutually exclusive.

在需要利益相關者支持的不確定性下做出高風險決策時使用。在評估戰略選項（構建與購買、市場進入、資源分配）、量化不確定結果的權衡、通過預期價值分析證明投資合理性、向決策者提出建議或通過成本效益估計創建業務案例時調用。當用戶提到“我們應該”、“投資回報率分析”、“提出理由”、“評估選項”、“預期價值”、“證明決策合理”或需要結合估計、決策分析和說服性溝通時使用。 來源：lyndonkl/claude。

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