chain-estimation-decision-storytelling

SKILL.md

Systematically quantify uncertain choices, make defensible decisions using expected value analysis, and communicate recommendations through persuasive narratives. This meta-skill chains estimation → decision → storytelling to transform ambiguous options into clear, stakeholder-ready recommendations.

Trigger phrases: "should we", "evaluate options", "make a case for", "ROI analysis", "expected value", "justify decision", "quantify tradeoffs", "pitch to", "business case", "cost-benefit", "probability-weighted"

Define the choice (what decision needs to be made?), identify alternatives (2-5 options to compare), list uncertainties (what variables are unknown or probabilistic?), determine audience (who needs to be convinced?), and clarify constraints (budget, timeline, requirements). Ensure the decision is actionable and the options are mutually exclusive.

Use when making high-stakes decisions under uncertainty that require stakeholder buy-in. Invoke when evaluating strategic options (build vs buy, market entry, resource allocation), quantifying tradeoffs with uncertain outcomes, justifying investments with expected value analysis, pitching recommendations to decision-makers, or creating business cases with cost-benefit estimates. Use when user mentions "should we", "ROI analysis", "make a case for", "evaluate options", "expected value", "justify decision", or needs to combine estimation, decision analysis, and persuasive communication. Source: lyndonkl/claude.

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