thinking-in-bets

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome.

当被要求“在赌注中思考”、“在不确定性下做出决定”、“概率性思考”、“避免结果”、“将决策质量与结果分开”或“减少决策中的偏差”时使用。帮助做出明确的赌注并根据过程而不是结果评估决策。投注思维框架（来自 Annie Duke）将扑克策略应用于商业和生活决策。 来源：pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management。

打开你的终端或命令行工具（如 Terminal、iTerm、Windows Terminal 等） 复制并运行以下命令：npx skills add https://github.com/pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management --skill thinking-in-bets 安装完成后，技能将自动配置到你的 AI 编程环境中，可以在 Claude Code、Cursor 或 OpenClaw 中使用