thinking-in-bets

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome.

當被要求「在賭注中思考」、「在不確定性下做出決定」、「機率性思考」、「避免結果」、「將決策品質與結果分開」或「減少決策中的偏差」時使用。幫助做出明確的賭注並根據過程而不是結果評估決策。投注思維框架（來自 Annie Duke）將撲克策略應用於商業和生活決策。 來源：pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management。

開啟你的終端機或命令列工具（如 Terminal、iTerm、Windows Terminal 等） 複製並執行以下指令：npx skills add https://github.com/pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management --skill thinking-in-bets 安裝完成後，技能將自動設定到你的 AI 程式設計環境中，可以在 Claude Code、Cursor 或 OpenClaw 中使用