reference-class-forecasting

SKILL.md

Reference class forecasting is the practice of anchoring predictions in historical reality by identifying a class of similar past events and using their statistical frequency as a starting point. This is the "Outside View" - looking at what usually happens to things like this, before getting distracted by the specific details of "this case."

Core Principle: Assume this event is average until you have specific evidence proving otherwise.

1. Find My Base Rate - Identify reference class and get statistical baseline

在开始预测时使用，以在分析具体情况之前建立统计基线（基本比率）。当需要将预测锚定在历史现实中时调用，避免“这次不同”偏见，或在内部观点分析之前建立外部观点。当用户提及基本费率、参考类别、外部视图或开始新预测时使用。 来源：lyndonkl/claude。

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