reference-class-forecasting

SKILL.md

Reference class forecasting is the practice of anchoring predictions in historical reality by identifying a class of similar past events and using their statistical frequency as a starting point. This is the "Outside View" - looking at what usually happens to things like this, before getting distracted by the specific details of "this case."

Core Principle: Assume this event is average until you have specific evidence proving otherwise.

1. Find My Base Rate - Identify reference class and get statistical baseline

Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction. Source: lyndonkl/claude.

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