reference-class-forecasting

SKILL.md

Reference class forecasting is the practice of anchoring predictions in historical reality by identifying a class of similar past events and using their statistical frequency as a starting point. This is the "Outside View" - looking at what usually happens to things like this, before getting distracted by the specific details of "this case."

Core Principle: Assume this event is average until you have specific evidence proving otherwise.

1. Find My Base Rate - Identify reference class and get statistical baseline

在開始預測時使用，以在分析具體情況之前建立統計基線（基本比率）。當需要將預測錨定在歷史現實中時調用，避免“這次不同”偏見，或在內部觀點分析之前建立外部觀點。當用戶提及基本費率、參考類別、外部視圖或開始新預測時使用。 來源：lyndonkl/claude。

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