expected-value

SKILL.md

Expected Value (EV) provides a framework for making rational decisions under uncertainty by calculating the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes. This skill guides you through identifying scenarios, estimating probabilities and payoffs, computing expected values, and interpreting results while accounting for risk preferences and real-world constraints.

Trigger phrases: "expected value", "EV calculation", "risk-adjusted return", "probability-weighted outcomes", "decision tree", "should I take this gamble", "compare risky options"

Expected Value (EV) = Σ (Probability of outcome × Value of outcome)

在具有可量化结果的不确定性下做出决策、比较风险选项（投资、产品押注、战略选择）、根据预期回报对项目进行优先级排序、评估是否进行赌博，或者当用户提及预期值、EV 计算、风险调整回报、概率加权结果、决策树或需要在不确定的替代方案之间进行选择时使用。 来源：lyndonkl/claude。

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