expected-value

SKILL.md

Expected Value (EV) provides a framework for making rational decisions under uncertainty by calculating the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes. This skill guides you through identifying scenarios, estimating probabilities and payoffs, computing expected values, and interpreting results while accounting for risk preferences and real-world constraints.

Trigger phrases: "expected value", "EV calculation", "risk-adjusted return", "probability-weighted outcomes", "decision tree", "should I take this gamble", "compare risky options"

Expected Value (EV) = Σ (Probability of outcome × Value of outcome)

Use when making decisions under uncertainty with quantifiable outcomes, comparing risky options (investments, product bets, strategic choices), prioritizing projects by expected return, assessing whether to take a gamble, or when user mentions expected value, EV calculation, risk-adjusted return, probability-weighted outcomes, decision tree, or needs to choose between uncertain alternatives. Source: lyndonkl/claude.

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