expected-value

SKILL.md

Expected Value (EV) provides a framework for making rational decisions under uncertainty by calculating the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes. This skill guides you through identifying scenarios, estimating probabilities and payoffs, computing expected values, and interpreting results while accounting for risk preferences and real-world constraints.

Trigger phrases: "expected value", "EV calculation", "risk-adjusted return", "probability-weighted outcomes", "decision tree", "should I take this gamble", "compare risky options"

Expected Value (EV) = Σ (Probability of outcome × Value of outcome)

在具有可量化結果的不確定性下做出決策、比較風險選項（投資、產品押注、戰略選擇）、根據預期回報對項目進行優先級排序、評估是否進行賭博，或者當用戶提及預期值、EV 計算、風險調整回報、概率加權結果、決策樹或需要在不確定的替代方案之間進行選擇時使用。 來源：lyndonkl/claude。

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