estimation-fermi

SKILL.md

Fermi estimation provides rapid order-of-magnitude answers to seemingly impossible questions by decomposing them into smaller, estimable parts. This skill guides you through decomposition strategies, bounding techniques, sanity checks, and triangulation to make defensible estimates when data is scarce, time is limited, or precision is unnecessary for the decision at hand.

Trigger phrases: "ballpark estimate", "order of magnitude", "back-of-envelope", "roughly how many", "feasibility check", "gut check", "triangulate", "sanity check"

Fermi estimation (named after physicist Enrico Fermi) breaks down complex unknowns into simpler components that can be estimated using common knowledge, constraints, and reasoning. The goal is not precision but being "right to within a factor of 10" quickly.

在不确定性下进行快速数量级估计（市场规模、资源规划、可行性检查）、将复杂数量分解为可估计部分、用上限/下限限制未知数、健全性检查策略假设时使用，或者当用户提到费米估计、粗略计算、数量级、粗略估计、三角测量或需要在详细分析之前评估可行性时使用。 来源：lyndonkl/claude。

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