estimation-fermi

SKILL.md

Fermi estimation provides rapid order-of-magnitude answers to seemingly impossible questions by decomposing them into smaller, estimable parts. This skill guides you through decomposition strategies, bounding techniques, sanity checks, and triangulation to make defensible estimates when data is scarce, time is limited, or precision is unnecessary for the decision at hand.

Trigger phrases: "ballpark estimate", "order of magnitude", "back-of-envelope", "roughly how many", "feasibility check", "gut check", "triangulate", "sanity check"

Fermi estimation (named after physicist Enrico Fermi) breaks down complex unknowns into simpler components that can be estimated using common knowledge, constraints, and reasoning. The goal is not precision but being "right to within a factor of 10" quickly.

在不確定性下進行快速數量級估計（市場規模、資源規劃、可行性檢查）、將復雜數量分解為可估計部分、用上限/下限限制未知數、健全性檢查策略假設時使用，或者當用戶提到費米估計、粗略計算、數量級、粗略估計、三角測量或需要在詳細分析之前評估可行性時使用。 來源：lyndonkl/claude。

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