probability

Success calculation from stats — no dice, just narrative odds. "The LLM is the dice. It narrates the outcome."

| Stats | Base capability | | Buffs | Temporary bonuses | | Debuffs | Temporary penalties | | Equipment | Tools for the job | | Context | Environmental factors | | Stakes | What's at risk | | Story | Narrative appropriateness |

| Critical Success | Very high odds + good context | Exceptional, exceeds expectations | | Success | Odds favor | Accomplishes goal | | Partial Success | Close odds | Achieves with cost or complication | | Failure | Odds against | Doesn't achieve, but no disaster | | Critical Failure | Very low odds + bad context | Memorable disaster |